Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Social Cycles

I don't want to do a lot of talking about this subject. But I want to bring something to your attention in case you'd like to follow up on it yourself.

It has to do with the case for major, measurable, perceivable and predictable social cycles.

Some sources you might enjoy pursuing:

1. The Case for Cycles by Edward R. Dewey from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

2. Martin Armstrong's economic essays (start at the bottom of the left-hand column and work your way up, if you want to read them chronologically). --You may want to read about Armstrong first on Wikipedia. As the man who introduced me to Armstrong wrote,
Armstrong’s work is widely respected amongst researchers, despite the fact that he is currently incarcerated for matters unrelated to his research work and economic models, which have been widely sought after for use by governments around the world and even the CIA, due to their accuracy.

Armstrong’s work has accurately forecasted — often to the day — many of the major moves and shifts in markets, including . . .
  • The 1980 high in gold
  • The stock market crash of 1987
  • The 1989 peak in Japan’s stock markets
  • Both the Asian financial crisis and the peak in broad U.S. stock markets in 1998
Plus, he’s made several uncannily accurate calls in the currency, commodity, and bond markets.
Some other people you might want to look up:
  • Joseph Schumpeter (who developed a business cycle theory that suggested when capitalist economies advance to a certain point, entrepreneurship ceases and comes to be replaced by socialism). See his Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy for a development of the thesis.
  • Nikolai Kondratieff and his long wave theory.
  • Clement Juglar
  • Simon Kuznets
  • and more.
I'll stop here.

Hope you find this path full of interesting discoveries!

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